Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DUE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      49  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  65  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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