Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE IS TO INSERT FOG FOR SE KS.

STORMS OUT WEST ARE VERY SLOWLY TRYING TO CREEP EAST. STILL A
CHANCE A COUPLE MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 BEFORE DAY
BREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. 12Z MODELS HINTED AT SOME FOG FOR SE KS AND 00Z RUNS ARE
STICKING WITH THIS. MOISTURE OVER SE KS WILL BE DEEPER THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...RECENT CLEARING
MAY HELP THINGS OUT.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE
PERIOD.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS PM/EVE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...UNDERNEATH DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO A FEW CLUSTERS...WHICH COULD SURVIVE AS FAR
EAST AS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT VIA A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR COUNTIES...WITH
MUCH LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY CLOSER TO
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. SLIGHTLY RICHER GULF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
PM/EVE HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING TO NEAR NIL...AND
A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX NOSING INTO THE REGION ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN OUR AREA DURING DAYTIME GIVEN
LITTLE CAP AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHEAR.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG/WEST
OF I-135...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THE PRIME
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS (MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14).

WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS EJECTING EASTWARD OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...WITH
LITTLE CAPPING FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY PM/EVE GIVEN
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY SHOULD
COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK VIA NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE
TOWARD MIDWEEK AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL SPRINGLIKE AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS REMAINS THE LOW CLOUD AND FOG POTENTIAL.

CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS IS TO GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z AT ALL SITES AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN. INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS IN A FEW HOURS IN
ADDITION TO SOME 2-4SM BR. STILL FEEL THAT KHUT-KRSL WILL HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS AND VIS LESS THAN 3SM
ALONG WITH KCNU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. CLEARED THESE
CEILINGS OUT AROUND 16Z BUT WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED IF THEY
PERSIST SLIGHTLY LONGER. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND TOOK VCTS OUT OF KRSL
AS THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AND
THE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  75  56  72 /  20  30  60  50
HUTCHINSON      53  74  54  72 /  30  40  60  60
NEWTON          52  75  55  71 /  20  30  50  60
ELDORADO        53  75  56  73 /  20  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  75  56  73 /  20  30  50  50
RUSSELL         52  70  51  71 /  30  60  70  60
GREAT BEND      51  72  52  71 /  30  60  70  60
SALINA          52  73  54  72 /  30  40  60  60
MCPHERSON       52  73  54  73 /  30  40  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     52  77  57  74 /  10  10  30  40
CHANUTE         52  75  56  74 /  10  10  30  50
IOLA            51  75  56  74 /  10  10  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    52  77  56  74 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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