Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 280803
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

TRANQUIL...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD RAIN REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL KICK THIS UPPER LOW EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...WITH DENSE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING
IN ITS WAKE. MODEL LOW- LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S...WARMEST OVER CENTRAL KS

THE WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A WESTERN
CONUS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES WILL SUPPORT 70S WEDNESDAY...WITH 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY.
COULD SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON...AS SUBTLE RIPPLES ALOFT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THIS
WEAKENED ACTIVITY GETTING INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THIS SCENARIO.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING TO
STRENGTHEN...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF HIGHER QUALITY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MID-AMERICA. WEAK RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH LEE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
RESULT IN LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES DURING MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY-SATURDAY...BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA
IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS UNLIKELY...DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE STORMS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE 70S-
80S...WARMEST SATURDAY-SUNDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS SW OK AT
THIS TIME...WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF SHRA TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE SKIMMING ALONG JUST SOUTH OF KS/OK
BORDER. SHORT TERM HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER AND GRADUALLY DROPPING IT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
KS BY TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN KS...OTHERWISE THE ONLY TAF
CONCERN WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      70  42  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        68  45  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  44  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         72  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          72  44  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       70  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  46  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  43  73  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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