Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 151815
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3F FOR TIME BEING. REST OF FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING A RAPID DEMISE TO THIS ACTIVITY BY MID-
MORNING.

A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN. MAINTAINED LOW
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT
AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EASTWARD BRUSHING THE AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WHERE 35-40 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 1700 J/KG
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN A DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND BUOYANT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE WHEN COMPARED TO THU.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAINTAINED HIGH POPS SAT-SUN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND
LOWER...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AND
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE GREATEST CONCERN IS SE KS WHERE 700-1000FT CONTINUE TO COVER
THESE AREAS. AS SUCH AM MORE PESSIMISTIC THAT KCNU WILL EVEN REACH
1500FT LATE THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 1500-2800FT COVER
CNTRL & SC KS WITH HIGHER DECKS PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL KS. SHORT-
TERM SNDGS APR A BIT OPTIMISTIC FOR THE 18-21Z PERIOD & AS SUCH
UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE BY ~500FT. CIGS TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY
THIS AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AND
THE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  72  54  70 /  20  40  60  60
HUTCHINSON      52  71  53  69 /  30  50  60  60
NEWTON          52  71  54  68 /  20  40  60  60
ELDORADO        53  73  55  71 /  20  40  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  74  55  71 /  20  40  60  60
RUSSELL         50  67  50  66 /  40  60  70  60
GREAT BEND      50  69  51  68 /  40  60  70  60
SALINA          51  69  51  68 /  30  50  60  60
MCPHERSON       51  70  53  68 /  30  50  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     53  76  57  73 /  10  30  30  60
CHANUTE         52  74  57  72 /  10  30  30  60
IOLA            52  74  56  72 /  10  30  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    53  76  57  73 /  10  30  30  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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