Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 060510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
PERIODIC EPISODES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

THROUGH 8PM...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS...DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS. WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL KEEP EVERYTHING BELOW
STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...MID-AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO EJECT
NORTHEAST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.50"
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN KS. SHORTWAVE AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
SURROUNDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION MARKS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE/HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ISSUES IN THE WARM
SECTOR GIVEN THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. IF THESE ISSUES
CAN BE OVERCOME...MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS DURING EVENING. MODEST
TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS DRYLINE WILL FAVOR STRONG MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT A HIGH-END AND/OR
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...JUST SO-
SO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL STORM COVERAGE ISSUES.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT STALLS IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST MANNER ACROSS THE KANSAS
REGION...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK RIPPLES IN FLOW
ALOFT...UPPER FORCING SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK/SUBTLE BOTH
DAYS...WHICH CASTS DOUBT ON STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN
DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE
CONSENSUS FINALLY EJECTS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH NORTHEAST OVER
MID- AMERICA...ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
QUESTIONS REGARDING SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE STILL EXIST
SINCE THIS IS STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALVES OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...GIVEN STRONGER FORCING AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT.

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MUCH QUIETER WEATHER BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION...AND A DRYER AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTH INTO MID-AMERICA.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

CIGS FROM 500-1000FT THAT COVER SC KS WILL SPREAD ACRS CNTRL KS AS
THE NGT PROGRESSES. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SE KS TIL ~12Z WHEN
CIGS WL DROP CONSIDERABLY FROM SCT015 OVC080 TO IFR (~800FT) AS
RA/ISOLD TSRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ACRS KS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
(~2500FT) AT KRSL IS LKLY 17Z-18Z. DETAILS FOR PERIODS BEYOND 18Z
WL BE FORTH COMING WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  62  77 /  40  30  70  50
HUTCHINSON      64  79  59  75 /  40  40  70  50
NEWTON          64  78  60  75 /  40  40  70  50
ELDORADO        65  80  62  77 /  40  30  70  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  63  78 /  40  40  70  50
RUSSELL         61  80  55  69 /  40  50  50  40
GREAT BEND      62  79  56  71 /  30  50  60  40
SALINA          65  79  58  73 /  40  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       64  78  59  75 /  40  50  70  50
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  64  79 /  30  40  60  50
CHANUTE         65  80  63  78 /  30  40  60  50
IOLA            64  79  63  78 /  30  40  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    66  80  64  79 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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