Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  40  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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