Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 300432
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1132 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

THE UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...RIDGING IS
SETUP OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST TX.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THU MORNING AND THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THU EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS SOME OF THE UPPER
ENERGY IMPACTS THE AREA ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL KS. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A SURFACE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR RIPPLES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
HIT PRECIP CHANCES TOO HARD DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS OR MORE
ROBUST WAVE.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THU WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135
GETTING INTO THE LOW 80S WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSISTING
INTO SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUE INTO WED. WITH THIS WAVE COMING OUT WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME AM LEANING TOWARD MON NIGHT
BEING WHEN WE SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO AT LEAST DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD STORMS ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE WED AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
LIFTS ACROSS KS. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
HWO IN THE EXTENDED AS IT APPEARS AT LEAST SOME LOW END SEVERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE MON NIGHT-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AT KRSL. FEW HIGH
BASED CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  78  51  77 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      47  79  52  77 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          47  78  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        47  77  51  76 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  78  51  78 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         46  81  52  77 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      46  81  52  77 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          45  79  51  76 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       46  79  51  76 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     47  77  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         46  76  47  75 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            46  76  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    46  76  46  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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