Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 030829
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE TREND IS CHANGING AS RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
THE FORECAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AND AFTERNOON IS LOW DESPITE A HINT
IN THE NAM/GFS. THE ECMWF AND HIGHER RES RUC/HRRR KEEP THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY DRY. THUS HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. DO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRACK EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. A STORM COULD BE
STRONG...BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS WITH A MAIN LACK OF SHEAR
AND ONLY MODEST MUCAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY IN THE
80S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME
LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION COULD BE IMPACTING CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
CENTRAL KANSAS. AS OF THIS FORECAST FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH PLENTIFUL CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG AND SOME MARGINAL SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30-50 KTS JUST IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL
RAINFALL WILL BE WESTERN/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE WARM IN THE
UPPER 70S APPROACHING 80.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: AGAIN EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AT LEAST
OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN KANSAS. WESTERN KANSAS COULD SEE RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE SUN
SETS. THE SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS KANSAS WILL FINALLY MOVE
EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH THE LIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS. EXPECT RAIN
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THAT WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE 70S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE PLAINS STAYS IN A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINING OF THE EXTENDED.
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH THE DISCREPANCIES AT THIS
TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO ROLL
EAST AND WEAKEN. STILL FEEL THAT SOME VERY ISO ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. DUE TO HOW ISOLATED IT SHOULD BE
WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE
20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  60  82  61 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      86  59  81  61 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          83  58  80  60 /  10  30  30  20
ELDORADO        84  61  81  61 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  61  81  61 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         87  60  80  59 /  10  50  60  60
GREAT BEND      86  60  80  59 /  10  40  40  50
SALINA          87  60  81  61 /  10  50  50  30
MCPHERSON       85  59  80  61 /  10  30  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     82  62  81  60 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  80  59 /  20  20  20  10
IOLA            81  62  80  59 /  20  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    82  62  80  60 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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