Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE MOISTENING...IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CLOSE TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR
REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND WILL TAPER RAIN
CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE RICHER GULF
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS. STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KICT THE MOST LIKELY SITE IMPACTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO WHETHER THESE STORMS MAKE IT TO KCNU. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW. BY AROUND 09-10Z MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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