Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...DIURNAL HEATING IN CONCERT WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-LATE
MORNING...PROBABLY MOST WIDESPREAD FOR SLN-RSL. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AMIDST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED. BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT BY THIS
EVENING...WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN
MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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