Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010427
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN KS. IN ADDITION...UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER CENTRAL KS. SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL REMAIN ISO/SCT IN NATURE. THEREFORE..WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES OVER CENTRAL KS ON FRI. NW UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUN AND SUN EVENING WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND LESS
CAPPING WILL BE SITUATED. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRY TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT GOING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SAT...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE AS WE REMAIN IN SW
FLOW ALOFT.

THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DIP
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN KS SETTING UP BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE. IN ADDITION...SOME WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ARE SCHEDULED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STILL FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MON NIGHT AS
CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS SHOW AN AREA OF 850MB CONVERGENCE OVER
WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO DRIFT
EAST MON NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE GFS SHOWING A MORE INTENSE WAVE LIFTING OUT. IN
ADDITION...THE 12Z ECMWF NOW HOLDS MORE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WHICH WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH THE GFS HAS SHOWED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR THE MON NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE FRI IN CENTRAL KS. OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION INVOF KRSL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  77  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      49  77  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          48  76  56  81 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        48  77  56  80 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  77  56  81 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         51  78  57  85 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      51  79  56  86 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          48  77  56  83 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  77  57  82 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     46  77  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         46  76  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            46  75  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    46  76  53  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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