Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND AS SUCH
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ON SCHEDULE. WITH A CUT-OFF MID
TO UPPER DECK CYCLONE CAMPING OUT OVER THE UT/AZ BORDER...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS...WEATHER & ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST DOPPLER TRENDS (I.E. PRIMARILY CENTRAL
KS) AND TO LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG & EAST OF I-135 THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
PARCELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED NEAR H85 AND MAINTAINED
LOW POPS FOR ANY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. MAINTAINED
LOW POPS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME TO A RAPID
DEMISE AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. MAINTAINED LOW POPS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THERE ARE 2 CONCERNS THIS AFTN:
1) TSRA POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY CNTRL KS.
2) "LOW-END" MVFR CIGS (1000-1700FT) ACRS SE KS WITH THE LOWEST
CIGS OVER KCNU.

A 20-30 MILE WIDE AXIS OF SHRA & SCT TSRA EXTENDED FROM CNTRL KS
BETWEEN LINCOLN & KSLN...TO ~35 MILES W OF KHUT TO SW KS/NW OK
BDR 40-50 MILES S OF KDDC. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MINIMAL WHICH ISN`T SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT A CUT-OFF MID-UPR LOW REMAINS CAMPED OVER THE UT/AZ BORDER
THEREBY CAUSING THE SFC CYCLONE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
ERN NM. AS SUCH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF -SHRA & ISOLD-SCT TSRA
WOULD CONT FOR KRSL...KHUT & KSLN BUT THE POSITIONING OF -SHRA &
ISOLD/SCT TSRA DICTATES VCSH/VCTS ASSIGNMENT TO ALL 3 TERMINALS
THRU THIS EVE. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE INCRS LATE THIS EVE OVER THESE
SAME AREAS WITH PERHAPS A FEW -SHRA/TSRA VENTURING E TOWARD KICT
LATE TNGT. CIGS OVER SE KS ARE TRICKY WITH 1000-1700FT REPORTED.
KCNU JUST WENT VFR AT 18Z WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE AS SHORT-TERM
SNDGS DEPICTED THE TERMINAL REMAINING IN "LOW-END MVFR" COUNTRY
UNTIL ~21Z WITH CIGS RISING THEREAFTER. CIGS OVER KCNU WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY SO BE LOOKING FOR UPDATES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AND
THE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  57  74  58 /  30  40  60  60
HUTCHINSON      75  57  74  56 /  50  50  60  60
NEWTON          75  57  74  59 /  30  40  60  60
ELDORADO        75  57  74  59 /  20  40  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  57  75  58 /  20  40  60  60
RUSSELL         70  56  72  52 /  80  80  70  60
GREAT BEND      72  56  73  53 /  80  80  60  60
SALINA          74  57  74  57 /  60  60  60  60
MCPHERSON       73  57  74  57 /  50  50  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  58  76  58 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         76  57  76  59 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            75  57  77  59 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    76  57  76  58 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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