Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  30  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  30  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  20  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  30  40  40
RUSSELL         61  51  74  51 /  10  50  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  40  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  20  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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