Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 310858
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER
THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY WERE IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TODAY & TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID & UPPER 50S ARE
MIGRATING TOWARD THIS AREA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE & WOULD
ALSO INDUCE WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SUN-DRECNHED SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS GULF MOISTURE MIGRATES ACROSS
KS.

WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION. AN UPPER
DECK WAVE THAT`LL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON WED. THIS CHARACTER
WOULD INDUCE THE WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROF TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY WINDY WEATHER ACROSS
THE NEIGHBORHOOOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE INTO KS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WED AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.

THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS STILL SLATED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT SE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MCS DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY WITH THE MCS SURGING EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN KS &
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE RAPID SE-MOVING COLD FRONT DICTATES FINE-
TUNING GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE EVENING AND EASTERN KS LATER IN THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE SE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AS IT WILL DECELLERATE AS IT VENTURES INTO SE KS & OK. HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE KS WHERE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THESE PERIODS AS BROAD RIDGE
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS OVER FAR SE KS
EARLY TUE MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY FOG
OVER KCNU EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WOULD OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH. SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTORS. HOWEVER...AFTER MID MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN GREATEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH WILL POSE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  57  85  55 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      80  55  86  51 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          79  56  84  52 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        79  56  83  55 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  83  57 /   0  10  10  30
RUSSELL         81  55  88  46 /   0   0  20  50
GREAT BEND      80  55  87  47 /   0  10  20  50
SALINA          78  55  87  49 /   0   0  10  70
MCPHERSON       79  55  85  50 /   0  10  10  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  56  80  61 /   0  10  20  30
CHANUTE         77  56  79  58 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            76  55  80  57 /   0  10  20  50
PARSONS-KPPF    77  56  80  60 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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