Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 041733
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK MCV
POSSIBLY SWIRLING INTO CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. CURRENT SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
KS THIS MORNING...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE MCV
MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN NEB PUSHED THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH...CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS.  AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAPPING INVERSION
SLOWLY ERODES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NE ACROSS KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS...GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. THINK MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL BE THE MAIN STORM MODE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN...GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. SO WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
POPS NORTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE.

AFTER THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...EXPECT THE STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE
OR END FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUE. BUT THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT. INCREASED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM/WRF
AND THE GFS/ECMWF ON HOW THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS KS. GFS
BRINGS A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE MAIN IMPULSE FOR TUE NIGHT. WHILE THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF BRING
THIS IMPULSE THROUGH MAINLY TUE NIGHT. PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND NAM/WRF...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL TUE NIGHT AFTER 00Z/WED.  SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR APPEARS MEAGER FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM
CHANCE GIVEN THE WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
GIVEN SOME ENHANCED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM THE IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AS MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO NUMEROUS
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED. BUT NOT
SURE HOW WED WILL PLAY OUT AS TUE NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON WED WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WED...AS SOME
SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IF THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER
FOR WED AFTERNOON/WED EVENING. THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE AS A DRY LINE PUSHES INTO WRN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS A LOT MORE
IMPRESSIVE FOR WED EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A SUPERCELL
CHANCE. COULD SEE MORE DISCRETE STORMS ON WED EVENING.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SW TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU
THROUGH SAT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE SW
US AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO PERIODIC STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON
TUE/WED...SATURATED GROUNDS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE SW FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE...THE QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KS. INCREASED SHEAR FOR BOTH
THU/FRI AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THU
(CENTRAL KS) AND THE REST OF THE AREA FOR FRI. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON CENTRAL KS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS
COULD FORCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH AND FORCE CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW ON THIS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY NEAR KRSL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  61  77  62 /  10  10  10  80
HUTCHINSON      82  61  77  62 /  20  20  20  80
NEWTON          82  60  76  62 /  10  10  10  80
ELDORADO        82  61  78  61 /  10  10  10  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  61  77  62 /  10  10  10  80
RUSSELL         80  59  75  61 /  60  50  50  70
GREAT BEND      83  59  73  61 /  40  40  50  70
SALINA          82  61  78  63 /  30  30  10  80
MCPHERSON       82  61  76  62 /  20  20  10  80
COFFEYVILLE     82  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  70
CHANUTE         81  59  79  61 /  10  10  10  70
IOLA            81  59  79  60 /  10  10  10  70
PARSONS-KPPF    82  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.