Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 020842
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

TODAY-SUNDAY:
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED WITH BROAD UPPER
DECK WAVE VENTURING EAST ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT SPRINTS
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE SURFACE
TROFFING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE CO/KS BORDER (AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE). THE WARMING TREND IS STILL ON THE DOCKET FOR ALL AREAS
WITH HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOME 15-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT:
WITH THE UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SURGES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE FROM
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS WESTERN KS...TO NM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MON MORNING. WITH THE COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE SURING TOWARD THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THE FRONT WILL DECELERATE & EVENTUALLY STALL
AS IT WILL LOSE THE "KICKER" NEEDED TO PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD CENTRAL KS ON MON. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST AREAS...MUCH MORE SO CENTRAL KS WHERE NO
DOUBT CLOSER TO THE STALLING FRONT. WITH A SOMEWHAT FEEBLE MID-
UPPER PATTERN THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE THROUGHOUT THESE
PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION & WITH A PRONOUNCED
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF SURGING ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUE NIGHT & WED...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT AS UPPER-DECK DIFFLUENCE INCREASES
OVER KS. VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS TUE NIGHT
& WED WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MORE IMPRESSIVE MID-UPPER
DYNAMICS WITH WHICH TO INTERACT. THE MID-WEEK PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW INCREASING ATTENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL/KSLN AROUND DAYBREAK AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WHETHER KHUT/KICT WOULD BE AFFECTED IS
LESS CERTAIN. HIGH BASES AND SHORT DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDED MENTIONING ANY MVFR CONDITION AT THIS TIME...BUT
TRANSIENT/VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE IF CORE OF A
HEAVIER SHOWER GOES ACROSS AN AIRFIELD. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  59  84  62 /   0   0   0  30
HUTCHINSON      81  59  85  61 /  10   0  10  30
NEWTON          80  59  82  61 /  10  10   0  30
ELDORADO        80  59  83  62 /  10  10   0  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  83  63 /   0   0   0  30
RUSSELL         84  59  86  60 /  10  10  20  50
GREAT BEND      84  59  87  60 /   0  10  20  40
SALINA          82  60  86  61 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       81  59  84  61 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     80  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         79  58  81  62 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            78  58  81  62 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    79  58  81  63 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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