Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 060005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
PERIODIC EPISODES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

THROUGH 8PM...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS...DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS. WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL KEEP EVERYTHING BELOW
STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...MID-AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO EJECT
NORTHEAST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.50"
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN KS. SHORTWAVE AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
SURROUNDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION MARKS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE/HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ISSUES IN THE WARM
SECTOR GIVEN THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. IF THESE ISSUES
CAN BE OVERCOME...MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS DURING EVENING. MODEST
TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS DRYLINE WILL FAVOR STRONG MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT A HIGH-END AND/OR
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...JUST SO-
SO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL STORM COVERAGE ISSUES.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT STALLS IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST MANNER ACROSS THE KANSAS
REGION...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK RIPPLES IN FLOW
ALOFT...UPPER FORCING SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK/SUBTLE BOTH
DAYS...WHICH CASTS DOUBT ON STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN
DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE
CONSENSUS FINALLY EJECTS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH NORTHEAST OVER
MID- AMERICA...ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
QUESTIONS REGARDING SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE STILL EXIST
SINCE THIS IS STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALVES OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...GIVEN STRONGER FORCING AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT.

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MUCH QUIETER WEATHER BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION...AND A DRYER AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTH INTO MID-AMERICA.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ANTICIPATE AREAS OF -RA (WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER SE KS) TO SLOWLY
INCR LATE THIS EVE WITH CIGS ACRS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS LOWERING
INTO MVFR COUNTRY LATE THIS EVE (03Z-05Z). THE WORST DETERIORATION
IN BOTH CIGS & VSBYS WOULD OCCUR AT KRSL WHERE IFR CIGS (~800FT) &
VSBYS (3-4SM) ARE LKLY 05Z-06Z. EMBEDDED TS SHOULD INCR V-E-R-Y
S-L-O-W-L-Y LATE TNGT WHICH INCR THE IFR LOW-END MVFR CIG & VSBY
POTENTIAL LATE TNGT. DETAILS TO BE FORTH-COMING AS THE NGT
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  76  66  79 /  90  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  77  64  79 /  80  40  40  40
NEWTON          61  75  64  78 /  90  50  40  40
ELDORADO        62  75  65  80 /  80  60  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  77  66  78 /  90  50  40  40
RUSSELL         60  79  61  80 /  70  50  40  50
GREAT BEND      59  79  62  79 /  70  50  30  50
SALINA          62  76  65  79 /  80  50  40  50
MCPHERSON       61  76  64  78 /  80  40  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     64  75  66  79 /  80  70  30  40
CHANUTE         63  75  65  80 /  80  70  30  40
IOLA            62  75  64  79 /  80  70  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    64  75  66  80 /  80  70  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.