Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 212347
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH AIRMASS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000J/KG. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT ALOFT FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO OCCUR.

MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY
AFFECTING SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...THUS
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY HOWEVER UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS KANSAS...AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS SOUTHWARD
INTO BAJA REGION AND EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN KANSAS...WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME HOURS GIVEN EXPECTED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKING TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. OTHERWISE...DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND PERHAPS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ICT-HUT...WITHIN
ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. SOMEWHAT BETTER SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT ICT-CNU AND PERHAPS HUT
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-09Z TONIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COVERED THIS THREAT WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH MAY EVENTUALLY NEED 1-2 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS.
STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GUSTINESS LIKELY LESSENING TOWARD MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  63  46  64 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      43  63  44  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          43  63  44  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        45  63  45  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  64  47  65 /  30  30  20  10
RUSSELL         39  63  42  63 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      41  62  44  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          39  61  41  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       42  62  43  64 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     49  64  46  64 /  30  20  20  30
CHANUTE         45  62  44  63 /  20  10  10  20
IOLA            44  61  44  63 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    47  63  45  64 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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