Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 012338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LAST NIGHT A MCS MOVED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND A REMNANT MCV SPARKED
CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING WHICH HAS TURNED INTO ANOTHER COMPLEX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX SKIRTED SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND IS
MAINLY IMPACTING MISSOURI. A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT/DRY LINE DRAPES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STOUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING WELL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED ON TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

TONIGHT:
THE MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS INITIATION TIME AND THEN TRACK OF THE
CONVECTION. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT-
TERM MODELS CLOSELY ALL DAY AND THEY HAVE BEEN SHOWING A LACK OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR/18Z SPARKS CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THIS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THERE IS ALREADY CU BUBBLING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WITH MODEST CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN. THE MAIN MISSING
COMPONENT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IS ADEQUATE BULK
SHEAR...THAT REMAINS FURTHER NORTH IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. THUS...DESPITE THIS LATEST HRRR...THE FORECAST HAS
CONVECTION INCREASING AND APPROACHING CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS
22-23Z. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN THAT IT WOULD BE A LATER
SHOW...BETWEEN 00-03Z...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COULD TREND THAT TO THE EARLIER SIDE.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR COMBO IS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND IN NEBRASKA...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE IN THOSE AREAS WHICH WOULD INCLUDE CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS. GOING ALONG WITH THAT
THE AREA FOR THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS IN CENTRAL
 AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTH.

THURSDAY:
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THINKING THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN THE
MORNING...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THAT THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
AND THIS TIME THE CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY:
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CAPE WILL RESIDE
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE FRONT AND SO THESE WILL JUST REMAIN SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND IT WILL CLEAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE WARMING AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE NATION NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS THE DETAILS ARE CONCERNED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.  ON SUNDAY...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL
INCREASE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  BY LATE
SUNDAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE
LONGER RANGE PROGS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD SURFACE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF.

AT THAT POINT...CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR HEREAFTER REALLY GOES
DOWN.  THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL MOVE THE SURFACE
LOW WELL NORTH INTO NEBRASKA.  THE CANADIAN ALSO AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO.  THAT SAID THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER TO EVOLVE AND KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW BACK TO NEAR GOODLAND KS.  THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVERGENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
VERSUS THE OTHER SCENARIO.

THUS FAR...AM INCLINED TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.  IF THEY DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THEY
WILL BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO GIVEN THE
ADDED SHEAR WITH THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF MONDAY ONLY THAT THE SURFACE FEATURES
ARE FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PRESENT A BETTER SCENARIO
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA A 50 KNOT
S-SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE A TS MENTION AT HUT OR ICT FOR NOW. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KS BY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY SHOULD
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO. SLN AND
CNU TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY BE ON SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM. THE FRONT MAY HANG UP OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF ICT AND CNU TERMINALS.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY BE FELT ON THURSDAY...IF THE
WINDS ARE STRONGER THEN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE
EXPECTED...BUT AS IT IS THAT IS ONLY THE CASE FOR A FEW HOURS IN
THE MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE
THESE ISSUES FOR A SHORT WHILE.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES END...AND WHILE
SOME AREAS MAY HAVE RECEIVED A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN...ANY AREAS
THAT DID NOT...COULD AGAIN SEE A RETURN TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH STRONGER WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  72  46  60 /  30  20  40  20
HUTCHINSON      53  70  43  60 /  30  10  50  20
NEWTON          54  70  44  57 /  40  10  50  20
ELDORADO        58  72  46  59 /  40  20  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  74  48  60 /  20  30  60  20
RUSSELL         47  70  39  59 /  60  10  50  20
GREAT BEND      48  71  40  59 /  50  10  40  20
SALINA          50  70  41  59 /  60  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       52  68  42  58 /  40  10  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     61  77  50  59 /  30  60  70  30
CHANUTE         60  74  48  59 /  50  50  70  30
IOLA            60  72  47  58 /  60  50  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    61  75  49  59 /  30  50  70  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



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