Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211707
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ONE AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SCOOT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER CLIPPING OK BORDER. THINKING MAINLY
SPRINKLES GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS IN SE KS...WITH SMALL
POPS OVER S CENTRAL KS. SOUNDINGS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-35 PRETTY
MUCH UNCAPPED BY 2100 UTC...WITH VERY RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. NOT MUCH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY DRY SOUNDINGS.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING THROUGH SUNSET FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE GIVEN THERMODYNAMICS...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW. THEN AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
EVENING...APPEARS THAT FRONT BACKDOORING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM NICELY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD FALL MORE IN THE NORTH WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LONGER.

WED-THU:
LOCATION OF BOUNDARY AND ENERGY ALOFT WEST BECOME THE KEY FACTORS
IN FORECAST. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD COULD FORCE BOUNDARY/PRECIPITATION FURTHER
INTO OK...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY LATER ON WED. FOR CONTINUITY/
COLLABORATION...WILL AT LEAST KEEP SMALL POPS GOING WED AFTERNOON
ALONG OK BORDER. CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH. AGAIN NORTHERN
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IS A CHALLENGE...AND PREFER THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF ECMWF. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN EDGES OF
FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY/DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...SO POTENTIAL FOR LARGE ERRORS IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IS HIGH. DO EXPECT SOME/MORE SUNSHINE
IN NORTHERN SECTIONS TO OFFSET POTENTIAL COLD AIR NORTH OF FRONT.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS OF THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT THE CURRENT RUNS ARE REALLY ANY
MORE CORRECT THAN YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...THE CONSISTENCY DOES ALLOW
FOR A BETTER RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MODEL MASS FIELDS AND
INITIALIZATIONGRIDS. THE KEY TAKEAWAYS ARE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOK GOOD FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH WAVE PROBABLY
MOVING THROUGH...AND THEN A BIT DRIER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUN...BUT GIVEN
NEAR TERM ISSUES...THIS IS PRETTY QUESTIONABLE AS WELL. WENT ALONG
WITH INITIALIZATION FOR TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER WHEN IT DOES RAIN AND WARMER
WHEN IT DOES NOT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST CLOSER TO AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE VCTS WILL BE MENTIONED. THE
DIURNALLY GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING
GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  46  65  48 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      73  43  64  46 /  10  20  20  20
NEWTON          72  43  64  45 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        72  45  64  45 /  20  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  49  65  48 /  20  30  30  40
RUSSELL         72  40  64  44 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      73  41  65  46 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          73  41  63  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  42  64  45 /  10  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  49  65  47 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         72  45  64  44 /  20  30  20  20
IOLA            71  44  63  44 /  30  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  47  64  46 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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