Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252323
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

The upper level trough moved into northeast KS early this morning,
stalled and pivoted, and has since moved southeast into Missouri.
The circulation has been impressive to watch on radar as associated
lift, weak low level instability, and moisture allowed a persistent
area of showers to spin tightly around the center of the upper
system as it crossed the area. A few of these showers were lingering
in eastern KS on the west flank of the low. These will remain
shallow and transient through late afternoon, but will provide brief
periods of rain before weakening and moving out of the area by 5 PM
or so. It appears likely that a deck of low stratus clouds will
build over the entire area overnight while northeast winds persist
around 10 mph or a bit stronger. The breeze and clouds will limit
fog potential and will keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid 40s
for lows. Clouds will be slow to dissipate on Sunday, but should
eventually scatter out as the moisture in the cloud layer is not
particularly deep. Sunshine would allow temperatures to climb into
the lower to middle 60s, while the northeast to easterly breeze will
persist through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A closed upper-level low is centered over New Mexico and will
gradually work its way east over the period, while ridging in the
northern stream allows for elongated surface high pressure to the
northeast noses into the area. Depending on exactly where the
closed low tracks, could see some light rain in the very southwest
portion of our area Monday afternoon with a SW to NE gradient of
cloudy to clearer skies. From here, PoP chances should remain to
our south through Tuesday. Slight warm up is seen Monday into
Tuesday.

For the extended period into Wednesday, still expect a dry pattern
to take hold with a strong upper level ridge beginning to build in over a
good portion of the Central CONUS.  With a southern stream of jet
energy well South and a northern stream well North, there won`t be
many significant chances for shortwave energy to create enough lift
to cause any precipitation.  The next best shot of showers or
thunderstorms appears to be late next weekend when both the EC and
GFS suggest a trough begins to dig into the Northern and Central
Rockies possibly ejecting a minor shortwave out ahead of it into the
Central Plains.  Moisture does appear to be limited with the timing
of this, however, so really not expecting any widespread activity at
this time over the outlook area.  Temperatures during this time rise
into the 70s with low 80s possible by the weekend.  Overnight lows
remain pleasant in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the 00z TAFs, main concern is with the lower ceilings from the
stratus deck that will linger through tonight and much of the day on
Sunday. Low-end MVFR cigs were in place early this evening and model
guidance continues to hint at several hours of IFR cigs (and
possibly even borderline LIFR conditions at times). However there is
still uncertainty amongst the models regarding the start time of
these IFR cigs so will need to monitor cig trends this evening.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement with cigs improving to MVFR
conditions by late morning/early afternoon before scattering out to
low-end VFR conditions by late afternoon. Winds through the period
will veer slightly from north to east-northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke






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