Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 241141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR cigs expected through 20Z-21Z with an improvement to VFR.
Some IFR cigs are possible with deeper moisture return. Also
maintained VCSH for the start of the period with elevated showers
and isolated tsra through 16Z. Some IFR cigs may develop at the
terminals and added a ifr cig at mhk where higher confidence is.
TSRA will be possible in the 00Z-07Z time period before
diminishing. IFR cigs and vsbys possible with TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






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