Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 240853
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters




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