Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 300442

1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

19Z water vapor imagery show a shortwave trough passing east of the
upper MS river valley with shortwave ridging moving into the
northern plains. A frontal boundary has moved through much of the
forecast area with temps warming behind the front due to good mixing
of the boundary layer and no cold air behind the front.

For tonight and Monday, the weather should be pretty nice with a
relatively dry airmass moving in and no obvious forcing or lift to
generate any precip. Weak surface ridging and clear skies tonight
look to set up some decent conditions for radiational cooling.
Because of this have tended to go with the coolest MOS guidance or a
degree cooler. Think lows will generally be in the mid 30s. This
weak ridge moves east of the area during the day Monday allowing
south and southwesterly winds to pick up and advect some warmer air
into the region. There looks to be good mixing of the boundary layer
again so highs in the lower to mid 70s appear on target and have not
made any major changes to the going forecast. Winds may become
breezy in the afternoon and cause additional fire weather concerns.
See the fire weather discussion for a more detailed discussion about
these concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Weak boundary still anticipated to settle into eastern Kansas Monday
night with westerly flow over it allowing for even warmer temps for
Tuesday. Local area becomes increasingly impacted by the next upper
wave translating east from the Pacific Northwest into the Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Thursday. Increasing south to southwest
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday bring higher theta-e air in, but
also likely a minor capping inversion over it as well. Moisture
return looks slow and meager enough to keep anything elevated in
check for Tuesday night with lows only in the upper 40s to middle
50s. Cold front`s progression continues to trend slower, likely
leaving most locations dry through the late afternoon with highs now
pushing into the lower 80s. 12Z ECMWF has now sped up the front for
Wednesday night however, leaving this period as the main opportunity
for precipitation in this forecast. Mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5
to 9 C/km range and moderate shear still provide at least minor
concern for severe weather Wednesday night. The timing of the
secondary upper wave remains troublesome Thursday night into Friday,
but at least some chance for elevated showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms remains with cyclogenesis to the southwest keeping the
elevated front nearby. Lower level cold air advection Thursday into
Friday brings temps down, though just how far is uncertain. Have
values in the middle of most spreads at this point. Modification
should occur for the weekend with rising mid/upper heights and south
winds returning.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.




SHORT TERM...Wolters
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