Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 190829
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Broad area of showers moving through the eastern portions of the
forecast at this hour, as upper low slowly advances into Western
Kansas. Winds starting to switch to northwesterly in south central
Nebraska, extending west then south into the high plains of Colorado
where winds are north and gusty.

First round of precipitation exits the area to the east around
sunrise, but anticipate redevelopment from the north and west as the
low moves closer and the front surges southeast.  Timing would
currently bring front into north central counties around noon and be
across to the eastern border around early evening. Models do
continue to carry some instability with higher values south,
although these could be overdone if skies don`t clear and give the
atmosphere a chance to destabilize before it comes through. If that
can happen then a few of the storms south of I70 could be strong in
the afternoon. Otherwise expect more broad coverage of rain and
embedded thunder as has been the case with this system the past few
days.  Winds become breezy as the front comes through with sustained
winds around 20 mph with gusts to 30 or more. May have kept
temperatures a little too high in the northwest where temps are
currently in the 50s and may not make it to 60 before the boundary
comes through.  Late evening convection moves quickly east and will
dry out the forecast west to east by around midnight with overnight
lows falling into the middle 30s northwest to the low 40s east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

By Monday morning the area will be under large scale NW flow aloft
as the main surface low tracks through the Great Lakes region. High
pressure will build southward along the high plains causing a
pressure gradient across the area, which means another day of gusty
NW winds. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s,
and the winds should diminish through the afternoon. Monday night
the low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s with
partly cloudy skies. The surface high pressure does not pass
directly through eastern KS, but the winds drop to near 5 mph during
the early morning hours. This could set the stage for the
possibility of frost in the sheltered locations. By mid week the
split flow aloft converges over the central plains. The surface high
retreating through the deep south will supply moisture back
northward in the return flow. Then a few weak shortwaves within the
NW flow aloft track over the area and bring a chance for precip
during the day Tuesday. At the same a stronger northern wave drags a
front through Tuesday night, which pushes into the southern plains.
Therefore there is a chance that we stay dry through the rest of the
week. A strong southern stream shortwave tracks from the CA coast
into the center of the country over the weekend. There are still
timing and placement differences at this point, but consensus is to
tracking the wave directly overhead. This will bring better chances
for precip although instability looks to stay well south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Sct showers continue to develop ahead of the main cluster of
showers of isolated thunder between KMHK and KTOP/KFOE. Initial
MVFR conditions that accompanied a westerly wind shift improve to
VFR until the main cluster arrives near 08Z at KTOP/KFOE.
Conditions may temporarily fall to MVFR within the heavier rain bands
however trends show cigs improving to VFR as activity weakens and
becomes more scattered. With the cloud deck lifting to near 10 kft
behind the showers, a saturated sfc with light winds aft 09Z are
trending towards patchy fog developing at sites. Will need to
monitor since multiple factors may contribute to visibility being
lower in the IFR category. May see a brief period of VFR
conditions by mid morning before another round of showers and
isolated thunder forms along and ahead of a cold front, falling
back to MVFR in the afternoon. Northwest winds become gusty in
excess of 25 kts late afternoon through the evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Bowen





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