Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 301700
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

The quiet weather pattern will persist through tonight as a
mid-level ridge slides eastward over the area today and the region
remains under the influence of surface high pressure. Early this
morning the surface high pressure was centered over the forecast
area, resulting in mostly clear skies and light or calm winds. With
these conditions in place low temperatures should bottom out in the
low/mid 40s. As the mid-level ridge, which is currently stretching
across the Rockies and High Plains, advances eastward into the
central U.S., it will help to shift the surface high pressure
slightly eastward today and tonight. As a result, surface winds will
become more out of the east today. Model soundings show mostly
sunny skies prevailing today as a result of the surface high
pressure.  With essentially the same airmass in place as the last
couple of days, expect similar high temperatures for today but
possibly a degree or two warmer into the middle 70s. With the
surface high pressure shifting further east by tonight, expect
southeasterly surface winds. Despite skies remaining mostly clear
tonight, these southeasterly winds will help to keep temperatures a
couple of degrees warmer with lows in the mid/upper 40s and possibly
even near 50 degrees across far north central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

Friday a shortwave trough moving across Minnesota and Wisconsin will
bring a trialing frontal boundary south into Nebraska and western
Kansas. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the
boundary Friday afternoon and may linger through the evening hours.
Weak perturbations moving through the zonal flow aloft, warm air
advection, and increasing moisture will bring a small chance of
showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday night.

Sunday is still looking dry with an EML capping convection through
the day. Sunday still looking warm with highs in the 80s. Sunday
night through Wednesday chances of precipitation will be on the
increase. Good moisture advection off the Gulf of Mexico into the
Central Plains is expected through the period. Sunday night a
frontal boundary will move southeast across Nebraska into north
central and northwest Kansas by Monday morning as an upper level
trough moves along the Canadian border. Convergence along the front
with increasing low level jet coupled with embedded waves moving
across Kansas enhancing lift. Marginal effective shear and along
with unstable airmass will likely see a few strong storms with hail
the main hazard. Tuesday and Wednesday the upper trough in the
southwest U.S. will move out into the Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a negative tilt upper trough. There are some
differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the placement of the
upper trough, but continue to point toward a more widespread
precipitation event. Shear and instability will be sufficient for
strong to a few severe storms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will
continue to watch this period if shear values increase leading to a
more widespread severe event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

Limited moisture and no real strong forcing will lead to VFR
conditions through tonight. The approach of a weakening mid level
trough axis on Friday may generate an ISOLD shower, but this is to
occur it will likely be after 18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters







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