Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
845 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RDR LATE THIS AFTN SHOWED SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVR
NRN/NW VA AND DRIFTING SSE. THESE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM OR TWO
COULD MOVE INTO OUR NRN/NW COUNTIES DURING THIS EVENG. HAVE
30%-50% POPS IN THESE AREAS...DIMINISHING TO SLGT CHC (20%) OR
14%-10% AS YOU GO SE TWD EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC. VERY LITTLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT...SO SEVERE WX IS UNLIKELY. BUT...COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY TSTM...DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM
MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1.25" TO 1.50"
RANGE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU THRU SAT...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF WITH REGARD
SPECIFICALLY TO A LO PRES AREA WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWRD AND
SPIN JUST OFF THE SE CST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HI PRES WILL
SLIDE OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST AND WELL OUT TO SEA.

EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY THRU THE PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DWPTS/HUMIDITY...DUE TO ONSHORE FLO. ONLY A
SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE EXTRM NW AND EXTRM SSE
COUNTIES THU AFTN/EARLY THU EVENG. HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S
NE (UPR 60S AT OCEAN CITY) AND ALONG THE CST TO UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
INLAND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LO MOVNG
NWRD JUST OFF THE SE CST. WEAK FLO/UPR LO CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE
CST THU NGT THRU SAT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST...SLOW
MOVEMENT AS THE LOW BECOMES STACKED WITH HEIGHT. FOR AKQ CWA...WE
WILL BE ON THE NRN FRINGE...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AFFECTING MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LATE THU NGT THRU SAT. HAVE NO HIGHER THAN 20%-30% POPS INTO FRI
MORNG...HAVE 30%-40% POPS OVER EXTRM SRN VA/NE NC FRI AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI EVENG...THEN HAVE 30%-40% POPS OVR CNTRL/SRN VA AND NE
NC SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT EVENG. MAINLY JUST 20% OR LESS OVER
THE ENE. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE CST TO THE LWR 80S
WELL INLAND BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOWS GET A TAD WARMER AS DEW PTS
RISE...RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S THU NGT...AND IN THE LWR
TO MID 60S FRI NGT (ALTHO SOME UPR 50S STILL POSSIBLE AT OCEAN
CITY).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HAS TO
DO WITH LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SE COAST...ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...AND HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT HAS ON THE LOCAL AREA. STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC/NHC FORECASTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE LOW UP INTO EASTERN NC ON
MONDAY...THEN OFF THE VA COAST ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN-
TUE...THEN DRY AGAIN NEXT WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THROUGH
TUE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT COOLER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A
COLD FRONT MOVG INTO NORTHERN VA HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS RIC
HOWEVER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THESE STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
FROM RIC-SBY.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION IS IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION
FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST SO OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING
CIRRUS...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SFC WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT E-SE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AND THE LOW OFF THE SE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN. THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME E - NE BUT ANY
CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR.

LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE COMING
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE
VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE E-NE
TONIGHT...THEN REMAINS LIGHT E ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OFF THE SE COAST IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLOWLY MEANDER UP THE CAROLINA COAST THRU MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIGHT NOW...SEAS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON
FRI...REMAINING 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/JEF
MARINE...JDM


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