Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 020535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN DECOUPLING WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO CALM WIND. CLOUDS
FROM UPSTREAM WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID 20S.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
INCREASING ON THE 290-295K SURFACE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWER FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS SO MOST OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE VIRGE WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND.
SO WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS AT THIS TIME.

ANY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-
20 MPH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FIRST TIME THIS CALENDAR YEAR THAT
ALBANY WILL REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ALSO LIKELY ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NO FROZEN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY OVER THE
REGION...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECTING AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...SO WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
DIFFUSE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SNOWMELT AND SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER RISES
WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE POSITION/TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST NORTH TRACKING
THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE THE CMC/NAM ARE FARTHER SOUTH
CLOSER TO NYC...WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIP TYPE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS. BEST CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SO WILL MENTION IN
THE HWO. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS POLAR JET AND PACIFIC JET INTERACT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CONUS.  DUE TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS TOO WILL
HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS OF PV ANOMALIES WHICH IS WELL SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE AN ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL WILL FEATURE
HUDSON BAY LOW VORTEX WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR.  MEANWHILE PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BE COMING ASHORE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE EVOLVING EITHER ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF I80.  AS THE STORM DEPARTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF.  THE NEXT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
 THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP REMAIN VARIABLE SO WE WILL BROADCAST
CHC-SCT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING SUNDAY.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY RIDES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SPRING-
LIKE WEATHER ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BIGGER PUSH NORTHWARD.  THE RESULT
WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION.

NOW PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A GREAT CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WE WILL UTILIZE A RAIN/SNOW THICKNESS/SFC-TEMP
FROM A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF/GEM.  THIS WOULD POINT TOWARD A MORE
WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...THAN CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MIGHT PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR.

SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK...PERHAPS A SPRINKLE
OR TWO AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
SOUTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 12Z...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS (HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF).
HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT DIMINISH A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE
THEY WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FEET
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY OCCASIONALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
THE SHOWER THREAT INCREASING (VCSH). FOR NOW...WE KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THIS FAR OUT IN THE ACTUAL TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

SO DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT
IS STILL IN QUESTION THOUGH. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW ICE JAMS...
MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAY FALL AS SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND
INCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE THE MMEFS /HYDROLOGIC
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS/ FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING AT FALLS VILLAGE AND GAYLORDSVILLE ON THE HOUSATONIC.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SNOWMELT AND QPF UNCERTAINTY.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO COOL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF TO CONSIDERABLY SLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY IN
ALBANY. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE THIRD LATEST FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY
IN A CALENDAR YEAR...WITH ONLY 1941 AND 1895 HAVING A LATER FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY...APRIL 3RD AND 5TH OF THOSE RESPECTIVE YEARS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...


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