Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 180209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS
SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



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