Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 020240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS OF
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. IT IS STILL MORE THAN A
MONTH BEFORE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL END OF FROST AND FREEZES IN THE
AGRICULTURAL VALLEYS OF EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
SOME FRUIT TREES THAT HAVE BLOSSOMED EARLIER THAN NORMAL MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD WEATHER...BUT FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
GENERALLY NOT ISSUED IN THE SPRING WHEN THE CURRENT DATE IS
EARLIER THAN THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS 5-10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL NW 10-20 KTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE MORE COOL DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE AREA BEFORE A NICE WARMUP ARRIVES FRIDAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING TROUGH...THE NORTH WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
SE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE WILL HELP
DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY...SO NO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THEN. HOWEVER
THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SW FLOW ENCROACHES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE THE ECMWF COMING MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS /NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THE INCOMING TROUGH AS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW/...
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. WILL BEGIN
THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ITSELF ONSHORE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND WE/LL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WON/T BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
EVENT BUT COULD SEE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A 5-10 DEGREE DROP BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 3-5K
FT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/WH


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