Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 031809
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HEATING HAS CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND
ALTO-CU. OTHERWISE ITS A FINE LATE SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

WE SHOULD LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY MORE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CU. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL OR SRN PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR OR
MORE LIKELY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL PWS ALONG THE E-W
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF AT LEAST CLIMO
OR BETTER POPS BUT DUE TO THE N-S MDL QPF DIFFERENCES WILL UTILIZE
A BLEND AND CAP POPS AROUND THE HIGH CHC LEVEL /40-50 PCT/ FOR
DAYS 3-4.

FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WRN PORTION OF THE E-W FRONTAL
ZONE TO BE LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VLY WHILE THE ERN SEGMENT
WEAKENS AND WAVERS JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE PA AND OH/WV/MD BORDERS.
IN GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH WEAK
FORCING UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE BNDRY AND PERHAPS INITIATING OVER THE WRN HIGH
TERRAIN. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC TO LOW CHC RANGE WED-FRI
WITH GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A TASTE OF FINE
SPRING WEATHER.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND CREATE LOW CIGS/SHOWERS INTO WED. THE FRONT MAY PUSH TO
THE SOUTH ON THURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL REDUCED CONDITIONS.

WED...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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