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000
FXUS63 KDDC 162003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

AT 12Z WEDNESDAY A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA. AN 850MB FRONT AT 12Z EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT
DODGE CITY BEING +19C. AT THE 500MB LEVEL AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
UNDER THIS RIDGE AXIS RANGING FROM 10 TO 12C. FURTHER WEST A 500MB
-15C UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN FAR EASTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO WYOMING AHEAD OF THE SMALL GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WILL
DISSOLVE AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HAVE
NOT REALLY CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY STILL LOOK
GOOD WITH THE +21 TO +25C AT 850MB ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DDC
FORECAST AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 90 FOR
MOST.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD COLORADO TONIGHT IT WILL
WEAKEN...BUT LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG SO WILL BE
SEEING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT STILL THINK THAT LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 50S AS
A RULE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONGER LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES. A DRYLINE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE KS/CO
BORDER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY
AND IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS, ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. 850 TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH FAR
WESTERN KANSAS REACHING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AREAS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE REACHING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES
MOVING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN ON THIS FRONT BUT
CURRENT MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST IT TO BISECT THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE EAST OF DIGHTON TO MEADE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE THE 500 VORT MAX
AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL BE LOCATED. LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY DRY WHICH MAY INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. AS OF NOW THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW DUE TO
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY AND FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORMS FORM. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE IF THE COLD FRONT IS FASTER THAN
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE 50S WITH
LOWS 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

EXTENDED MODELS THEN SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE AT THE SURFACE WITH LEE
TROUGHING REDEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BASE ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND RECENT
SATELLITE LOOP SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  89  61  90 /   0  10  20  10
GCK  55  91  59  91 /   0  20  20  20
EHA  54  90  60  93 /   0  20  20  20
LBL  55  92  60  92 /   0  20  20  20
HYS  57  90  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
P28  56  89  65  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA 42
AVIATION...BURGERT