Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232148
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

SNOW AMOUNTS, SNOW DURATION, SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SNOWFALL, WIND
STRENGTH ARE ALL ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE 1ST PERIOD.

MADE A MAJORITY OF THE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AROUND MIDDAY WITH
THE DISCUSSION OF THESE CHANGES IN A PRELIMINARY AFDDDC. NOT MUCH
HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING SINCE THEN. THEM MID LEVEL CYCLONE
CONTINUED TO UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
SURFACE CYCLONE CENTER (IN TERMS OF SURFACE WIND FIELD VERTICAL
VORTICITY) WAS BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND PRATT AS OF 21Z. A NOSE OF
WARM AIR HAD ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH
MEDICINE LODGE AT 61 DEGREES. THERE IS MARGINAL SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR A ROGUE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT TO DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM STAFFORD TO HUTCHINSON...HOWEVER THE STORY WILL BE
THE SNOW. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO CHARGE SOUTHEASTWARD...ALONG
WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. AS OF 2130Z...SNOW WAS IMPINGING ON SCOTT
CITY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS NOW MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW AS THE -1C H85 ISOTHERM WILL
CHARGE SOUTHEASTWARD QUICKLY. HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH THIS EVENT AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE CYCLOGENETIC.
THIS MEANS GREATER AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS AND THUS STRONGER
CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION IN THE H85-6 LAYER...AND THUS MORE
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS FOR HEAVY BANDED SNOW.

KGLD 88D ALREADY DEPICTING A BAND OF 30+ DBZ SNOW FROM THOMAS TO
LOGAN COUNTY WHICH IS LIKELY CORRESPONDING TO 2-INCH PER HOUR
RATES. FOR AMOUNTS...WILL BE GOING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SNOW
ADVISORY AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN THE 18Z NAM12
RUN...THE RADAR PRESENTATION...AND WV PRESENTATION...THINK HIGHER
AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DURATION OF SNOW. IT IS A SMALL STORM
AND IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING IN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AREAS WITH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. BY
12Z...THE STORM SHOULD BE HISTORY...AND SINCE THERE IS NO ARCTIC
AIR INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN ITS WAKE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE JUST AS WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS AS TODAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...REACHING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY. AGAIN...SINCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF US...THE FLOW PATTERN IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME MARGINAL COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE H85/7 LAYER. IT WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO OFFSET THE DOWNSLOPE...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

DAYS 3-7...


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  50  26  52 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  27  48  24  50 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  27  52  26  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  29  52  26  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  31  47  27  48 /  80  20   0  10
P28  34  53  30  55 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ043-
044.

&&

$$

FN25/32/32





  • National Weather Service
  • Dodge City, KS Weather Forecast Office
  • 104 Airport Road
  • Dodge City, KS 67801-9351
  • 620-225-6514
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  • Page last modified: Nov 10th, 2009 17:45 UTC
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