RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 232148 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 348 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... SNOW AMOUNTS, SNOW DURATION, SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SNOWFALL, WIND STRENGTH ARE ALL ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE 1ST PERIOD. MADE A MAJORITY OF THE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE DISCUSSION OF THESE CHANGES IN A PRELIMINARY AFDDDC. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING SINCE THEN. THEM MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUED TO UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE CYCLONE CENTER (IN TERMS OF SURFACE WIND FIELD VERTICAL VORTICITY) WAS BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND PRATT AS OF 21Z. A NOSE OF WARM AIR HAD ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH MEDICINE LODGE AT 61 DEGREES. THERE IS MARGINAL SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR A ROGUE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM STAFFORD TO HUTCHINSON...HOWEVER THE STORY WILL BE THE SNOW. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO CHARGE SOUTHEASTWARD...ALONG WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. AS OF 2130Z...SNOW WAS IMPINGING ON SCOTT CITY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS NOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW AS THE -1C H85 ISOTHERM WILL CHARGE SOUTHEASTWARD QUICKLY. HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THIS EVENT AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE CYCLOGENETIC. THIS MEANS GREATER AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS AND THUS STRONGER CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION IN THE H85-6 LAYER...AND THUS MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS FOR HEAVY BANDED SNOW. KGLD 88D ALREADY DEPICTING A BAND OF 30+ DBZ SNOW FROM THOMAS TO LOGAN COUNTY WHICH IS LIKELY CORRESPONDING TO 2-INCH PER HOUR RATES. FOR AMOUNTS...WILL BE GOING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SNOW ADVISORY AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN THE 18Z NAM12 RUN...THE RADAR PRESENTATION...AND WV PRESENTATION...THINK HIGHER AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DURATION OF SNOW. IT IS A SMALL STORM AND IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AREAS WITH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. HEAVIER BANDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. BY 12Z...THE STORM SHOULD BE HISTORY...AND SINCE THERE IS NO ARCTIC AIR INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN ITS WAKE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS AS TODAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...REACHING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY. AGAIN...SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF US...THE FLOW PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MARGINAL COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE H85/7 LAYER. IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO OFFSET THE DOWNSLOPE...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. DAYS 3-7... && .AVIATION... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 29 50 26 52 / 30 0 0 10 GCK 27 48 24 50 / 20 0 0 10 EHA 27 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 10 LBL 29 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 10 HYS 31 47 27 48 / 80 20 0 10 P28 34 53 30 55 / 20 10 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031- 045-046. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ043- 044. && $$ FN25/32/32
