Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 080942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS PROGGED TO CROSS SW KS LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY AS THIS FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KS PCPN
CHANCES NOT APPEARING TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA BORDER 85H MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS
85H WAA, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER 925-85H FGEN DEVELOPS. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS OF -RW DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT IN
OUR SE CWA WHILE LEAVING DRYER CONDITIONS FURTHER NW.

ON MONDAY A 5H S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA WITH 7H WAA
AND MID LVL MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. LOW LVL MOISTURE
STILL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED IN OUR SE AND SOUTHERN
MOST CWA SO WILL BE KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS ON MONDAY IN OUR S/SE
CWA AND EVEN CONTINUE SOME LINGER POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON
THE TIMING OF THE 5H TROF.

AS FOR TODAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NICE DAY BASED ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT AND NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH HIGHS TODAY SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.


DAYS 3-7...

MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES BY WED/THU
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ADVERTISED TO PASS NORTH OF OUR
AREA.

THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
FOR THE FRI-SUNDAY PERIOD. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
PREVIOUS FCST, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOW COOL WE GET
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUD BASE MAY LOWER TO
6-10KFT BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z 9TH
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  45  53  35 /   0  20  40  20
GCK  71  41  54  33 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  75  42  54  36 /   0  20  20  20
LBL  75  43  56  34 /   0  20  30  20
HYS  72  42  56  33 /   0  10  20  10
P28  74  51  57  40 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN18/24/24








  • National Weather Service
  • Dodge City, KS Weather Forecast Office
  • 104 Airport Road
  • Dodge City, KS 67801-9351
  • 620-225-6514
  • Page Author: DDC Webmaster
  • Web Master's E-mail: w-ddc.webmaster@noaa.gov
  • Page last modified: Aug 26th, 2008 18:04 UTC
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