RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 242130 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 330 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA, CANADA. A +110KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS S/WAVE TROUGH IS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST CANADA SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN PUSHING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SO, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE ROCKIES OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 JUST ABOVE 0C ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO NEAR 7C ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE SLIDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP SEND A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING TEMPERATURES AT H85 AROUND 0C ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO JUST ABOVE 0C ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 40S(F) NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO THE 50S(F) ELSEWHERE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL AGAIN BE DOWN NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON THANKSGIVING BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM JUST ABOVE 5C ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO JUST ABOVE 10C ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. COMBINED WITH THE HELP OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. PLAN TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. DAYS 3-7... THE MAIN FCST QUESTION TODAY IS HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE 2ND RUN IN A ROW. THE CANADIAN HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM THE 00Z RUN TO THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. A FEW OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DEEPER AND SLOWER, ALTHOUGH NOT AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES IN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR STORM FOR SOUTHWEST KS EVEN IF THE WETTEST SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ANYWAY. THE MODELS DO NOT ADVERTISE ARCTIC AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES AND SKIES CLEAR. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN KS, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DOWNSLOPE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME COULD KEEP MAXES IN THE 40S OR EVEN LOWER 50S. BUT THIS IS 8-10 DAYS OUT AND MUCH COULD CHANGE BEFORE THEN. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 25 52 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 23 50 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 23 52 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 22 52 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 25 48 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 P28 27 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN32/24/24
