Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 250446
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
946 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
DRIER WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT...SOUTHERN TRINITY...AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES...CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT. RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
AREAS NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAIN AT ALL OVERNIGHT
SO CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE BEEN DECREASED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. RPA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 458 PM PDT...

MARINE UPDATE...A NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
WATERS. UPSTREAM DATA INDICATES THAT THE SWELL SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN
10 AND 12 FEET AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. THUS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE SEAS STATE A FOOT OR TWO BRINGING THE
INTERIOR WATERS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 3 AM. RPA

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 145 PM PDT...

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING ON SHORE NEAR
AND JUST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO AT THIS TIME. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN UPPER VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE BASE
OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING, WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO BE A
MILDLY COOL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS
WILL NOT FALL DRASTICALLY...RUNNING AROUND 4500-5500 FT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN WIDESPREAD TOTAL QPF IS
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EITHER AS THE MODELS DON`T SHOW ANY
INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AT THAT TIME AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. BEYOND
THAT, WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST AS NO LARGE
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. MS/JT

AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AS CLOUDINESS
INCREASES DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS APPROACHING THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES WITH LIGHT WINDS OCCURRING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AT KCEC AND KACV. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KUKI OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION HAS
RELAXED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER A NORTH WEST SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING THE SEAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
INCREASING SEAS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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