Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192029
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
329 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING IT OVER THE KS/OK BORDER. ALL THAT REMAINS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA IS A BIT OF RAIN THE SERN
QUARTER...PRIMARILY JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NC KS. AS
EXPECTED...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE...AND IT HAS
BEEN A WINDY DAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS
DISTURBANCE PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND THE
RESULTING NWRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR/EXCEEDING 40 MPH. JUST AN
UNPLEASANT DAY...WITH WINDS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY IN
THE LOWER/MID 50S.

ONCE THAT LAST AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWRLY
FLOW SETTING UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NRN MN AND RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SFC...WHILE NOT AS GUSTY...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...SET UP
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND SLIDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDES JUST OFF TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...AND WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ISNT AS TIGHT AS IT IS TODAY...ITS NOT WEAK...AND
TOGETHER WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INCREASED MIXING
POTENTIAL INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
TOMORROW. NW WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUST
NEAR/OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...THE INCREASED MIXING INTO DRYING AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO HELP IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S. CHANCES ARE THAT AFTER
THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN WE HAVE HAD THAT FUELS ARE UNFAVORABLE
FOR FIRE GROWTH...BUT UNTIL THAT IS CONFIRMED WITH PARTNERS
/LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING/...WILL CONTINUE THE INHERITED MENTION OF
FIRE CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
THOSE THAT PLANTED TENDER VEGETATION EARLY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES.

TUESDAY TROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE CRAWLING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE SFC FLOW ALONG WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD GIVE A BIT OF A BOOST TO TEMPERATURES MAKING TUESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEBRASKA TO UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WE ALSO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KNOCK
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS ARE
CALLING FOR BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI-CITIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MANY CLOUDS WE WILL
SEE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WHICH WILL INFLUENCE OUR LOWS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING FROST/FREEZE TYPE WEATHER. WE ARE
NOT YET ISSUING HEADLINES FOR FROST/FREEZE AS WE ARE STILL WITHIN
A TIME PERIOD WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS STILL FAIRLY NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THOSE THAT HAVE TENDER PLANTS OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
TAKING A PIECE OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA...DIVING IT
SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK AND THEN EJECTING IT
INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND INDICATES A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH REMAINS LOW. THE GFS
WOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN A RAINY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AT 50/50 OR LOWER. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SUPERBLEND OF
MODELS WANTS TO LINGER SOME POPS AROUND INTO SATURDAY AND CAN NOT
ARGUE THESE LOW POPS GIVEN MOST RECENT FORECAST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY PRIMARILY BE IN THE 50S DUE TO
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WHILE WE COULD CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN CATCH SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT FORECAST MODELS.
WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PERIOD GIVEN LIKELY LACK OF SKILL IN TRYING TO DEVIATE FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS
THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BROUGHT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 40
MPH. THESE WINDS...LIKE THE SKY COVER...WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



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