Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 061050
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
350 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A WINTER-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ATTM. THREE SEPARATE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER TO PROVIDE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY THE UPPER LOWS. A WEAK LOW OVER SOCAL...A
STRONGER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A MUCH STRONGER LOW
OVER WASHINGTON. WE HAVE SEEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALL WEEK ALONG
THE CREST...BUT WE WILL FINALLY GET SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND EVEN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BY
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. ALL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND ENDING ON SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY...WE COULD SEE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AND
OROGRAPHIC LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE UP TO
ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP WITH THIS
COLD SYSTEM AND ONLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH SOME LOWERING ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 5500
FEET. TIOGA PASS IS OPEN AND SNOW CRITERIA IS LOWERED AFTER MAY
FIRST FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL GO OUT WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BE CONVECTIVE AND SOME AREAS MAY GET
MORE THAN OTHERS. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR PARTNERS AT
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...ANY SNOW ON TIOGA PASS WILL CAUSE IT TO
SHUT DOWN AND IT THAT WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON MOUNTAIN
TRAVELERS.

COLD CORE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER CENCAL AND THEN
KICK EAST TOWARDS VEGAS BY SAT AM. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME
CONVECTION IN THE SIERRA ON SAT AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE LOW CENTER. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE
GFS IS BRINGING IN ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE REGION
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CREST
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-06      100:1987     58:1921     69:1992     41:1975
KFAT 05-07      103:1987     56:1905     69:1989     36:1965
KFAT 05-08      101:2001     59:1977     71:1987     39:1933

KBFL 05-06      104:1987     55:1921     71:1989     42:1988
KBFL 05-07      101:1987     61:1930     70:1989     42:1965
KBFL 05-08      100:1987     63:1933     71:1906     40:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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