Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 041052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML
CAPES IN THE 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING...WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SAGGING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS IS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DOWN
TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY UP ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE TODAY...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS CAN GET
GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY BEING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
WEAKENING THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

KDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STALLED
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KDAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP COULD ARRIVE LATE
THIS MORNING.

KCMH/KLCK: THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS RAIN WILL SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

KILN/KCVG/KLUK: THESE TERMINALS ARE IN EVEN MORE IN QUESTION
WHETHER PRECIP WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. AS OF NOW... HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS THEY
REMAIN ON THE EDGE.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES





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