Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 050208 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS IN NE LOUISIANA ARE STILL TRYING TO TAPER OFF AND THEY
HAVE FOR THE MOST PART. NOT MUCH NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND BY 12Z AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST DEEPENS A BIT. PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY AREAS OF EARLY MORNING
MIST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALSO NOTED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA COAST AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS
TROUGH WAS HELPING DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER WEST. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE WHOLE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA RESULTING IN MORE OF AN EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION WORKING TO LIMIT CONVECTION AS WELL. THE
MORNING JAN SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 0.60IN WHICH WAS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
THE MODELS SUGGESTED. SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI HAVE
MIXED INTO THE LOWER 50S AGAIN. THE DRIER AIR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COME THURSDAY MORNING A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL STILL BE OVER OUR CWA. A
TROPICAL/SUB TROPICAL LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST COULD
HELP STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCREASE OVER OUR
CWA FROM THE WEST DUE TO WAA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA
IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS
FURTHER AS THE CWA BECOMES PINCHED BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE EAST OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AND ANOTHER LARGE CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS. /22/

BY SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET A NUDGE EAST AS TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WHILE BETTER LAPSE RATES
WILL EXIST ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE MID
60S...FOR THE MOST PART THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS WARM
LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STRONG. THE WEAKEST CAP
STRENGTH WILL EXIST IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AND JUSTIFIES SOME
SLIGHT POPS.

BETTER FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY AND SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR A BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...ONCE AGAIN
BEST IN THE WEST.

WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES. THESE SHOULD BE LESSENING
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A SUMMERISH MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR
RETURNS./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  84  59  84 /   5   3   4   5
MERIDIAN      57  83  56  84 /   4   2   4   4
VICKSBURG     61  83  60  85 /   7   5   5   6
HATTIESBURG   59  84  58  85 /   6   6   4   9
NATCHEZ       62  83  61  84 /  14   7   6  10
GREENVILLE    61  84  61  84 /   4   3   4   6
GREENWOOD     60  84  59  85 /   4   2   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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