Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA HAS DECREASED FOR NOW...WITH
A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. A TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NE FL UNTIL 4 PM. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHERE SKIES HAVE BROKEN
APPROACHING INTERIOR SE GA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS/SMALL LINES OF STORMS INTO THIS EVENING...SO
WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH UNTIL SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING
MID/LATE EVENING...AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA...LEAVING
SEABREEZE/SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS.
THUS...THINK THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS NE FL. WILL
USE SCATTERED POPS FOR NE FL...WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF
SE GA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ONCE AGAIN AS SOME DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
IN STORE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH SE GA AND STALLS ACROSS NE FL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDS ACRS SE GA...WHILE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NE FL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER
STORM ACTIVITY. MILD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUN NIGHT WITH 60S ACROSS SE GA AND NEAR 70 ACRS NE FL. COOLER MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST
AND SE GA IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND.
MON NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS
SE GA AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NE FL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUE/WED...GFS/EURO MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT
IN GENERAL EXPECT LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO
DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX AND TRACK
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS
AND ANY TRAINING ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE.

THU/FRI/SAT...DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOLER CONDS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION DURING THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEMS. MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND AND NEAR 60 ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS FOR JAX/CRG/VQQ
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL
AREA WIDE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
FL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...REACHING SCA
LEVELS OFFSHORE BY THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH WEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY BELOW HEADLINE
LEVELS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GOMEX ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING OFFSHORE
THU/FRI FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTURE. SPEEDS ALL LOOK TO
MAX OUT IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE FOR NOW WITH SEAS POSSIBLY INTO
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OFFSHORE WITH SCEC HEADLINES BUT NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. LOW RISK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  89  64  79 /  40  20  10   0
SSI  70  86  66  74 /  50  20  10  10
JAX  72  90  68  80 /  50  30  20  30
SGJ  71  84  70  79 /  40  30  30  30
GNV  72  86  71  84 /  30  30  30  40
OCF  72  87  70  84 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/HESS



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