Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 040237
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1037 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DESPITE SOME VALLEY TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAVE SLIGHTLY
DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN FORECASTED...THE OVERALL FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAVE UPDATED AND OUT A NEW
ZFP TO REMOVE ANY EVENING WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND SENT THE
FRESHENED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SOME SLOWLY
DISSIPATING CU WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
BUT MAINTAINING INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD...BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES STILL WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TOO FAST TO BRING BACK HIGHER DEW POINTS...LIKELY BECAUSE OF
TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION BEING ALLOWED IN THE MODELS. THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS THAN
THE MODELS SUGGEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SIZABLE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS NOW SEEM LESS CERTAIN WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT MODELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN OVER AGGRESSIVE ON SURFACE MOISTURE...TENDS TO SUPPORT A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL STAY CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR
DEW POINTS AS THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SURFACE MOISTURE
LATELY...ALTHOUGH EVEN TODAY THEY WERE A BIT HIGH. THESE LOWER
DEW POINTS TODAY REALLY CONFIRMS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANY RAINFALL THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NOT ONLY
DO WE HAVE MOISTURE CONCERNS...BUT WE ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL CAPPING TO ALSO OVERCOME...SO THE PIECES JUST DON`T FIT
TOGETHER FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH CHANGING ON THAT FRONT EITHER. LOOK FOR
LOWER 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID
50S AT NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S EACH NIGHT. THE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL BUT SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE USUAL RIVER VALLEYS AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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