Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 041007
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
307 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK
COURTESY OF A COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. HOWEVER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
GOOD SHOT OF WELCOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE KICKED UP
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN ABOUT THE SAME AREAS
AS YESTERDAY FOCUSING FROM THE LANDER/EUREKA COUNTY AREA UP INTO
ELKO COUNTY WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED WITH CAPE NEAR 500
J/KG AND LI`S -2 TO -3. PW`S STILL LOW AT .50" OR LESS SO MOST
STORMS WILL BRING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING
DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN BUT HARD TO
PREDICT EXACT LOCATIONS. TUESDAY NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH JUST
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE REACHING THE GROUND AS LCL`S DECREASE A
BIT DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT MORE SHEAR BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A BIT MORE OF
DYNAMICS TO THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET MAX
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS. LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY
BASED ON MODELS WILL BE IN CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEVADA. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO SOME
INSTABILITY SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST. LCL`S WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER ON WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION IN AREAS WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
DECENT AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE
EUROPEAN RUN YESTERDAY WAS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...BUT NOW HAS COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS. POPS HAVE BEEN MASSAGED AND RAISED ACCORDINGLY AS A RESULT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6500-7500 FEET IN
MOST AREAS EXCEPT HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHERE 5500 TO 6000 FEET IS
POSSIBLE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL DIP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BREEZY OUT THERE...ESPECIALLY IN WHITE PINE COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN WHITE PINE COUNTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THIS TIME. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
ALL AREAS...WITH SNOW LEVELS AGAIN BETWEEN 6500 TO 7500 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THESE SNOW LEVELS
AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR ALL LOCATIONS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST
WITH WEAK DIRTY RIDGING MOVING EAST. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK AWAY THIS
MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AGAIN IN CENTRAL NEVADA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KTPH...KELY...AND
KEKO...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE WITH ANY OUTFLOWS. BLDU MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING TCU AND CB EAST OF
KWMC...WITH TS CHANCES TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PUT IN FORECAST.

.EQUIPMENT...THE WINNEMUCCA ASOS IS EXPERIENCING TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ISSUES AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE ASOS IS NOT TRANSMITTING
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE INTERNET...LANDLINE COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN
OPERATIONAL. IT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN THIS WILL BE
REPAIRED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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