Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181041
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
641 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion and Forecast Update...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Some locally dense fog has developed across south central KY this
morning, so an SPS was issued for this area. Also updated the grids
to add in patchy fog across the entire forecast area for a few hours
this morning. Though the fog is most widespread in the south,
observations and webcams show patchy fog further north as well.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

The first issue in the short term will be how much fog develops this
morning. A few areas of fog have developed this morning, mainly across
south central Kentucky, though much of it is light fog. Will
continue to monitor conditions via obs and webcams for areas of
dense fog.

Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise. The
remainder of the day will be partly cloudy and warm for this time of
year as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft. Mainly high
clouds are expected across the region today, with a few Cu moving
into south central Kentucky late this afternoon. Temperatures will
top out some 10 degrees above normal this afternoon in the upper 70s
to around 80.

Dry weather will not last, however, as a low pressure system moves
out of the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and across Indiana Sunday.
Rain will be on the increase through the evening hours across south
central Kentucky and spread into north central KY and southern IN
after midnight. Precipitable water values will increase to around an
inch and a half. Soundings show some elevated instability overnight
as well, so isolated to scattered thunderstorms will accompany the
showers with moderate to heavy rain at times.

For Sunday rain will be ongoing in the morning hours with the initial
wave moving off to the northeast through the morning. Winds aloft
will increase by the afternoon and sounding become unstable. A
shortwave will approach from the west. This will spark more
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms in the
afternoon could become strong with gusty winds. Additionally,
rainfall amounts of a half an inch to an inch and a half will be
possible through this period which could cause additional rises on
area rivers and ponding of water in low lying areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Models are in fairly good agreement with the pattern across the
Midwest and Ohio Valley Sunday night, with a surface low over
northern or central IN and another low forming over AR. Both of
these lows are connected by a cool front. Moisture ahead of this
front will continue the rain chances from Sunday into Sunday night.
The actual front should push through Monday morning, but model QPF
fields indicate some light returns behind it, as trough aloft
continues over the region, so cannot rule out some light
rain/drizzle during the day Monday.

We`re still looking at a dry Monday night and Tuesday, but then the
GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro bring in some more light precip
Tuesday night/Wednesday as another cool front approaches the region.
In fact the GFS brings a series of these fronts through the end of
the week, keeping rain chances in. The Euro and GEM are not quite as
pessimistic, so will keep those chances fairly low for now. However,
they do all show a more organized system getting together over the
Central Plains on Friday, helping to strengthen a warm front
somewhere in our vicinity.

Temperatures will be around normal for this period, though any of
the cloudier days have a better chance to go below normal for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 637 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Light to locally dense fog has developed across the area this
morning. This will mainly impact BWG this morning as the visibility
has dropped to less than half a mile. This will improve by an hour
or two after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the remainder of the day.

Rain will overspread the area tonight as a low pressure system
approaches from the southwest. Ceilings will lower this evening and
overnight. MVFR cigs are expected late tonight at SDF and BWG. Winds
will shift from easterly today to southeasterly this afternoon and
tonight. Some thunderstorms will be possible overnight, but this far
out do not have the confidence in coverage to add them in to the
TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER




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