Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 020026 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TURN NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY FOR A WARMUP. ON FRIDAY
THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BEGIN AND RAISE TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A LOW SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FOR MORE CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
ONE MORE ROUND OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TONIGHT. LOOKS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, POSSIBLY A TAD WEAKER. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WE`LL BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND UPPER
SUPPORT AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY AT BEST FOR
LA/VENTURA VALLEYS AND MTNS AND PROBABLY SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FOR THE COAST. STILL EXPECTING THE WARM UP THOUGH WITH HIGHS POPPING
BACK TO THE LOWER 80S THU AND MID TO UPPER 80S FRI. RECORDS FRIDAY
ARE MOSTLY HIGH 80S FOR THE COAST AND 90S AT LEAST FOR THE VALLEYS
SO PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING HEAT EVENT ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW AS A
TROF MOVES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE BIGGEST
DROPS FROM FRIDAY, ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES, WHILE VALLEYS DROP
4-8. MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START FORMING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY AND MOVE IN QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER 70S AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR IN PLACE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MINIMAL, OR AT LEAST SLOW CLEARING FOR
COASTAL AREAS. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF OVER NRN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE THROUGH. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN THIS FAR
SOUTH BUT COULD KEEP THINGS PRETTY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER TROF, SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST BY EARLY WED. MODELS HAVE REALLY HAD TROUBLE
WITH THIS ONE AND WHILE TODAY`S AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY SOLID IT
CERTAINLY HASN`T BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN
ANY ONE SET OF MODEL RUNS REMAINS VERY LOW. IT DOES SEEM TO FAVOR A
FAIRLY COOL PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH TUE WITH A PRETTY STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF NIGHT/MORNING MARINE LYR. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TODAY`S MODELS DO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF RAIN, MAINLY
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0020Z.

AT 2330Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS 1400 FEET DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. EXCEPT FOR A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS AT KLGB ABOUT 10Z-16Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
AIRFIELDS THRU THU AFTERNOON. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AFFECT
KSBP AND KSMX THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THU AFTERNOON. STRONG AND GUSTY
W WINDS WILL AFFECT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED AT KSBA TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON
WINDS IN THE VICINITY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND
KVNY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
NEARBY.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING. GUSTY W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH. EAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT CAN BE EXPECTED ABOUT 14Z-18Z...WITH GUSTY W
WINDS AGAIN THU AFTERNOON.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL
COAST TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
THE NEAR SHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER GALE
FORCE. SAME GOES FOR THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL STAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHANNEL. THE EASTERN
HALF WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALL AREAS...INCLUDING AREAS
THAT DO NOT SEE THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND STEEP
SEAS AT SHORT PERIODS WHICH WILL PEAK THIS EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SANTA ANA`S DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD GUSTY NW WINDS TO RETURN ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INNER WATERS POSSIBLY AFFECTED
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/235 PM...

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 50-60 MPH) ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPECIFICALLY THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS
WELL AS THE VALLEYS OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
WIND GUSTS 25-45 MPH. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SO HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POORER AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ON
THURSDAY. SO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST WITH
WINDS GENERALLY IMPACTING VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS...GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SEVERAL
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND AREAS
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...BOLDT
FIRE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS

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