Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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