Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTER SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE
WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY.

LIFR CIGS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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