Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 050543
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
143 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR
SO OF THE PERIOD. SOME COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
THEREFORE KEEPS THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. STILL,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVING TOWARDS ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO FOR NOW, KEPT THE TREND WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
OCCASIONAL THUNDER ALONG THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SURFACE WIND ALREADY ENE 8-12 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS
AND THIS WILL INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE 20-25 KNOT GUSTS AFT 14Z.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE BAHAMAS
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A LARGE MASS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WAS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
MOISTEN THIS EVENING...AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. A FEW SPRINKLES WERE MOVING OVER THE MAINLAND AS WELL.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND THE PWAT THIS
EVENING WAS ABOUT 1.1 INCHES. THIS WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS THAT NEEDS TO GET MIXED OUT. SO LOWERED POPS FOR THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
SPEED/COASTAL CONVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MOISTENING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY THE MORNING FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOW THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. KEPT VCSH IN FOR TONIGHT THEN PROB30 OF MVFR
+TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING TROUGH TUE. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...THOUGH BRIEF. GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUE...LOCALLY HIGHER IN +TSRA. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS WEEK. LATE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GO DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
RELATIVELY DRY LOW- LEVELS HAVE PRECLUDED ANY PCPN. FEEL ANY SHWRS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. MAIN WEATHER-MAKER OF THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN VICINITY OF CUBA...WILL BEGIN
NORTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT. THUS...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING
MOST OF BAHAMAS AND CUBA WILL BE SPREADING NORTH/WEST TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA. SINCE LOW PRESSURE HASNT DISTINCTLY FORMED YET...ITS
TRACK AND FUTURE STRENGTH ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN. 12Z GFS NOW SENDS
TRACK A BIT CLOSER TO FLORIDA COAST...SO CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY HAS INCREASED. EXPECT FAIRLY TIGHT
PCPN GRADIENT...WITH GREATEST HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG
ATLANTIC COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH LOPRES FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM SW TO
NE. TEMPS WILL BE REGULATED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...SO
EXPECT MODEST DIURNAL TREND AND BELOW NORMAL MAXIMA/ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE REGIME TAKES HOLD. RELATIVELY LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW
SHOULD FAVOR EASY SEA-BREEZE INTRUSIONS...MEANING SHWR/TSTM
CHANCES ARE GREATEST OVER INTERIOR.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY EASTERLY
FLOW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT PER LATEST
GUIDANCE AND WITHIN ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
CONTINUED VCSH AFTER 02Z AT ALL EAST COAST SITES.

MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT UNTIL 0Z FOR ATLC WATERS...MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
HIGH RISK RIPS ALONG ATLC BEACHES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
WITH LOPRES TRACKING NEAR ATLC WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS COMMENCE TONIGHT.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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