Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 070832
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY THEN STALL AND
LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...NON-TROPICAL LOW E OF FLA/GA LINE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE N TODAY...WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING MSTR
OVER ERN NC. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD INLAND AT LEAST ALONG COAST TODAY...AND RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL S OF HAT THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL BE MAIN PCPN BUT KEPT
MENTION OF SLGT CHC TSTMS ALONG COAST WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
NRN AND INLAND SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BUT CHC POPS
THIS AFTN WITH SCT SHOWERS PSBL.

MOS BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY LOW-MID 70S EXCEPT SOME UPR 70S
NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW WILL
STALL ABOUT 100 SM SE OF CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOVEMENT
TOWARD W-NW OVERNIGHT AS CIRCULATION BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN CUT-OFF
UPR LOW. MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER AREA WITH THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ALL ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR S OF
HAT THIS EVENING...THEN CHC POPS ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OFF
THE GA COAST TODAY.

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETTING UP A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW...WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
00Z MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE SC COAST FRI...THEN
STALLING ALONG THE SE COAST INTO SUN...BEFORE WEAKENING AND
LIFTING ALONG THE NC COAST LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS NOT
UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHWARD AND
FINALLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. UPPED POPS FOR FRI...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY...AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH SC
TSTMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW.

THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ROUGH
SURF/HIGHER THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THOUGH ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS COULD BE FELT ACROSS EASTERN NC IF THE TRACK AND/OR
STRENGTH CHANGES. PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAIN IN MARGINAL RISK
FOR SVR TSTMS FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK MARGINAL...BUT
GIVEN THE BACKING ONSHORE WIND PROFILES AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS.

GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORTING THE WARMEST TEMPS MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST...COULD
SEE A FEW UPPER 80S INLAND TUE WITH SWLY FLOW. AS LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST TUE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA...LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOULD START TO DRY
OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH NWLY FLOW. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 50S/LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE REST OF
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN ATMOS BELOW 15K FT. SOME
SCU LIKELY NEAR COAST BY 12Z WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. AS
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND FROM OFFSHORE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
KEWN AND KOAJ BY AFTN. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCT INLAND AND KEPT AS
VCSH AT KPGV AND KISO...BUT DO EXPECT MVFR CIGS THERE AFTER 00Z.
ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESS SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE S WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS KEWN AND KOAJ.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
BRINGING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM CHANCES WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH CONTINUING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW
APPRAOCHING FROM S TODAY...THEN STALLING SE OF CAPE FEAR THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUAL SHIFT TO W-NW OVERNIGHT. INCREASED WINDS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD GFS/ECMWF WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS 20-25 KT FROM HAT
SOUTH...AND AROUND 15 KT N. DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
E-NE THIS MORNING TO E-SE TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS. LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL
AND UPDATED WITH WW3 AS IT INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH CURRENT 6
FT AT 41025. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT OUTER WATERS S OF
OREGON INLET TODAY AND 8-10 FT TONIGHT. KEPT SEAS AT 4-5 FT N OF
OREGON INLET WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THERE.

ELEVATED SEAS WITH INCREASING SE SWELL WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS FOR S OF HAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE GA COAST.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOW/STALL OFF THE SE COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND....THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST LATE SUN AND
MON.

PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESP SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. INCREASED WINDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SLIGHTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST E/SE WINDS 10-20KT
FRI INTO SAT FOR THE SOUNDS AND WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET.
EXPECT TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SO WILL
CONTINUE 15-25KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING MORE SSE SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS 20-30KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW. WINDS BECOME SSW MON AS
WEAKENING LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE COAST. SCA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. WILL CONTINUE SEAS
BUILDING TO 3-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-10FT SOUTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD


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