Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 281015
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY AND BE SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COAST BY LATE TODAY AND THEN BE
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MONDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A BREAK
IN THE PCPN THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. BUT THE SFC LOW TO THE
SOUTH...AND DIFLUENT FLOW EAST OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF TEXAS
AND TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI TODAY...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY...BUT DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. ALSO APPEARS THAT FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINS WILL AGAIN BE OVER
THE GULF TO THE SOUTH...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER THE
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND AS A RESULT HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THOSE AREAS HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL
SINCE MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OF SO IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO
MORE). RAINS WILL BE GRADUALLY ENDING WEST TO EAST BY LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ENERGY CAUSING THE CURRENT WEATHER
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STALLS AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES
OFF....LEAVING THE FA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW...AM NOT SEEING AN APPRECIABLE DROP IN THICKNESS VALUES OVER THE
FA THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DROP IN
DAYTIME TEMPS WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 50S AGAIN...BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS...THE DRY THAT HAS MOVED IN WORKS WITH SUNNY SKIES
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND UPWARDS A BIT...INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SWING
EAST...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND WEAKEN THE NORTHERN FLOW EVEN MORE. TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT MORE UPWARD...BUT STILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF...ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST...BUT
LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS RESTORES ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND MOST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA. TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT NARY A RAINDROP IS IN SIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...AND
WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA...A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA...BUT MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS SEEING THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN. TEMPS A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/12Z FORECAST CYCLE..MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD BUT OCCASIONALLY IFR...ESPECIALLY IN AND
NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SFC
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY BUT REMAINING
JUST WEST OF THE MARINE AREA. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COASTAL AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EAST AND THEN SOUTHERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 12/DS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  56  71  54  78 /  60  40  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   76  61  72  58  79 /  70  50  30  10  05
DESTIN      75  66  72  60  77 /  80  50  30  10  10
EVERGREEN   73  59  71  52  78 /  60  70  30  20  10
WAYNESBORO  70  54  70  51  78 /  60  40  30  20  05
CAMDEN      73  58  70  52  77 /  70  60  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   75  59  72  53  79 /  70  50  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.