Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 250718
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
218 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS WE GO TOWARD
DAYBREAK PASSING THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA 12Z TO 13Z (7 AM CDT
TO 8 AM CDT) AND THEN WORKING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY DURING THE
MORNING. I HAVE THE FRONT HANGING UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE MORNING FROM JUST NORTH OF PADUCAH DOWN THROUGH
BOWLING GREEN TO JUST NORTH OF BYRDSTOWN TENNESSEE. H-TRIPLE-R
PUSHES THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY 12Z (7 AM CDT) BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
A FEW STRAGGLERS BUT THOSE SHOULD BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SO IF MODELS ARE RIGHT MID STATE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
OVERNIGHT RAIN AND WILL SHOW THIS TREND IN ZONES AND GRIDS.

WITH MID STATE IN WARM SECTOR AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE CYCLONE
FROM MISSOURI VALLEY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING UP SO AM
LOOKING FOR WINDS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY
MIDDAY. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH AROUND 80
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. THINK GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT STORMS LOOK TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE AIR MASS IS DRYING OUT AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. THINK THE PRIMARY
MODE WILL BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT WILL FORM RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS STILL AROUND TONIGHT
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY MAINLY EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...DAVIDSON AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES WERE STRUCK BY AN F2
TORNADO ON APRIL 25TH 1932. CUMBERLAND COUNTY WAS STRUCK BY AN F2
TORNADO ON APRIL 25TH 1880.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  59  68  46 /  60  30  20  05
CLARKSVILLE    79  56  65  43 /  50  30  10  05
CROSSVILLE     72  58  65  43 /  80  50  30  10
COLUMBIA       80  60  70  46 /  60  30  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   80  60  71  47 /  60  30  10  05
WAVERLY        81  59  67  46 /  50  30  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





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