Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 061503
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1103 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
THU. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...THEN LIFT OUT ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN TRACK OUT
TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY A SHORTWAVE CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SOME SECTIONS.
RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WITH LOW RH BELOW 850MB.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMP
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES. HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE. THERE IS A HINT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN ALL THE
00Z MODELS THU AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TERRAIN INDUCED...AND
WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE PCPN TO REACH
THE CWA ATTM. THE END RESULT IS A DRY FCST. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TNGT...AND A BLEND OF THE MOSG25 AND NAMDNG5 FOR
THU...WHERE THE WEAK GRAD FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXTENSIVE AND
EARLY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT YIELDING MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE
COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA. THEY START TO
DIVERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND
BREAKS IT DOWN QUICKER THAN THE EC. SINCE THIS IS A KNOWN BIAS OF
THE GFS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE EC SOLN WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
CMC. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY...WHICH MAY ALSO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WELL AS HOW FAR S A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN FROM THE N. HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO MAKE HUGE CHANGES MON THROUGH WED...BUT WE MAY NOT
SEE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE/TUE NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO THE SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FOG AND STRATUS AT
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING BEGINNING FRI NIGHT (COULD HAVE PATCHY
FOG IN SOME ISOLD SPOTS THU NIGHT) WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SLY FLOW IN
PLACE. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST SAT AND SUN FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NE WINDS THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KT VEER TO THE E AND THEN SE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF
BY +/- AND HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF
BY +/- AND HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF
BY +/- AND HOUR OR TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF
BY +/- AND HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF
BY +/- AND HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF
BY +/- AND HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
AT NIGHT AND THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU AS HI PRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW.

FOR THU NGT THRU MON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVSY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT SUN
AFTN/EVE WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS
SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THEREAFTER...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS/DW
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24



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