Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 260819
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING WILL CONT
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH
SOUTH FROM THIS SFC LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
AND EVENING.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND IN DEVELOPING PRECIP A BIT QUICKER
TODAY AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WE EXPECT TO SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AS WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE WILL
TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP... BUT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS... WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE A LIKELY SCENARIO.
CONTEMPLATED FLOOD WATCH... BUT DUE TO THESE SHIFTS IN TIMING AND
LOCATION... WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THESE
ISSUES RESOLVE THEMSELVES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

BEYOND TUESDAY... IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A MUCH
QUIETER PERIOD WITH NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD TEMPS.
THIS WILL TAKE US INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  55  59  48 /  20  80  80  70
HOBART OK         79  54  61  45 /  40  70  80  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  57  65  49 /  40  70  70  60
GAGE OK           70  47  55  40 /  30  80  80  60
PONCA CITY OK     71  49  60  46 /  10  60  60  50
DURANT OK         86  57  65  50 /  10  70  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.